Mouse Farts in a Wind Tunnel

May 8, 2003

I've been listening to WMMT all morning via the internet. I'm in love. Old-fashioned country, bluegrass and gospel on a non-NPR public radio station. Every once in a while, Metafilter coughs up something more than worthwhile.

The other station that I listen to online is the Cincy station that I have on in the car: WMMJ -- get your MOJO workin'! Jammin' oldies means soul and R&B from the 60s through the 80s, so it's always good for some Marvin Gaye or Sam and Dave or Stevie Wonder or or or.... Oddly enough, they have been playing some of Janet Jackson's early stuff recently. I always hate to think of music that I remember being released as oldies. But it's true. Maybe the Janet Jackson airplay is another sign that the eighties are here again. I keep counting the signs.

posted by el goose on 5/8/2003 02:15:29 PM | link

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May 7, 2003

And here's another ... I start rooting around on Quizilla and lose all common sense.



Neutral: Harmony and balance is key. You don't look at the world in a negative or positive way and you'll never judge or assume a situation- you just look at the facts. People like you are peaceful and accepting.

What color do you see the world in?
brought to you by Quizilla

Yeah, that's me... beige.

posted by el goose on 5/7/2003 11:57:26 PM | link

It Was Inevitable



You are Beast!

You are brilliant and extremely clever. You can handle almost any problem swiftly and efficiently. You are devoted to philosophy and are always up for a good discussion. Sometimes, though, your anger gets the best of you and you upset those whom you care about.

Which X-Men character are you most like?
brought to you by Quizilla

posted by el goose on 5/7/2003 11:36:57 PM | link

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May 5, 2003

Loyalty Day

Scared yet?

posted by el goose on 5/5/2003 02:58:46 PM | link

World Health Organization's SARS page

Has links to data accumulated by the WHO. I haven't followed the media storm, but new information from the WHO is somewhat unsettling, at least in terms of the impact the virus could have in the near future. First, data on the virus's stability outside the human body is disturbing. Reach for the SARS translates the information in the table into a layperson's language.

According to the WP [Washington Post], a series of laboratory studies organized by the World Health Organization and set for release today show varying times for how long SARS can survive. One study showed the virus alive and kicking after more than 24 hours on a plastic surface at room temperature, while another found the microbe remained very much potent for as long as four days in human waste. Another study out of Japan showed the virus could survive extended periods of time in the cold. Meanwhile, on the containment front, German scientists discovered that common detergent couldn't kill the virus, suggesting that efforts to sterilize contaminated areas may be largely ineffective.

Scientists at WHO, which will post the studies on its Web site today, say the research could be crucial to containing the epidemic. Yet, one major question about SARS remains unanswered: How much of the virus is necessary for someone to become infected? Researchers, according to the piece, might not be able to answer that question for quite some time.

Probable cases of SARS by date of report, Worldwide, 1 January - 2 May 2003

Compare with:

Probable cases of SARS by date of onset, China, 1 January - 31 March 2003

Assuming that the data from overseas has become at least reasonably reliable, it is interesting to see that although the occurrence of SARS worldwide is rising, it is dropping in China. This is good news, if true, since it indicates that containment is at least possible. How draconian do containment measures have to be and can they be set in place without inciting panic? Don't know.

News about the impact of the virus on Asia's economy is potentially bad, worse, worst, depending upon how quickly China is able to control the spread of the virus and at the same time avoid panic.

SARS crisis: Potential threat to Asian economy

China's own economy looks certain to slow from the sizzling 9.9 per cent growth recorded in the first three months of the year. Citigroup recently lowered its 2003 growth forecast for China to 6.5 per cent from 7.6 per cent, following similar revisions by other banks.

An economist with the Geneva-based World Trade Organization, Michael Finger, warns that given China's growing importance as an engine of growth for the global economy, world trade could suffer if SARS is not brought under control soon. "It will be quickly felt throughout the economy. The biggest problem will be if it creates some panic reactions,'' Mr. Finger said.

Some signs of panic were seen last week, as anxious Beijing residents stocked up on food and other supplies after the city government announced measures to quarantine people exposed to the deadly virus.

Insulated by restrictions on its trade and financial markets, China weathered downturns in foreign investment and export demand during the last crisis by keeping its currency steady and spending heavily to stimulate its domestic economy.

How well other Asian countries fared depended greatly on how they responded to the need for political and economic reforms.

SARS Negatively Impacting Asian Economy

The outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, or SARS, is having a negative impact on Asia's economy, the World Bank says. The institution has revised its growth forecast downward this year.

The World Bank has cut by one percent its yearly growth forecast for Asia, saying it expects growth to reach only five percent, mainly due to the effects of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, but also the war in Iraq and a global electronics slump.

In other words, there are very good reasons to do everything possible to stop the spread of the virus as quickly and completely as possible (duh). However, given its stability and resistance outside the human body, it seems unlikely that it will be eradicated completely. Containing and managing SARS exposure will become one more cost of doing business with China and, depending upon its spread, the rest of Asia.

Another scenario to be deeply concerned about is what could happen if SARS makes inroads into countries with large populations of HIV infection.

HIV and SARS: HIV co-discoverer speculates on impact

Speaking at a press conference in Tokyo, Prof. Luc Montagnier said that SARS could have more serious health implications for people with HIV, and that the mortality rate amongst people with HIV who have reduced immune function, would be higher than the 4% currently being observed. Southern China, where SARS is thought to have originated, has a high HIV prevalence, but it is not known if anybody who has been infected with the virus is also HIV-positive.

Prof Montagnier did, however, point out that SARS and HIV are two completely different viruses, and that with a mortality rate of no more than 5% the virus “hasn’t got much chance of going far” and that influenza killed many more people each year.

Not enough is known yet, really, about either the true mortality rate or the incidence of SARS to make any final statements about it, and that, to me is the most unnerving thing of all. Lack of knowledge and misinformation, of course, leads to panic and unrealistic responses to the virus. In the end, blatantly obvious, but information is so devalued in the information age that it bears repeating again and again.

Random interesting links:

Epidemiology FAQ

Health Guide for travellers to Thailand

posted by el goose on 5/5/2003 02:44:04 PM | link

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