Mouse Farts in a Wind Tunnel

January 25, 2003

Studies in Intelligence: Journal of the American Intelligence Professional.

In the section entitled Intelligence Today and Tomorrow, the latest issue contains the following articles:

Supporting US Foreign Policy in the Post 9/11 World

A primer on the CIA worldview, which may taste great to some, but is certainly less filling. One of the main thrusts here is the gap between intelligence and policymaking. This section or the paper is completely without irony:

Relations with the Major Powers

This last observation leads naturally to the fourth factor shaping the international environment, namely the future development of our alliances and relations with the other major powers. Our core alliances will be critical to our future success just as they have been in the past. In the aftermath of the September 11th attacks, we have reaped the rewards of the investments made in our major alliances over the past 50 years. Witness NATO’s unprecedented invocation of Article V of the NATO Treaty, Australia’s invocation of Article IV of the ANZUS Treaty, and how both have matched words with deeds. Europeans and Australians have shed their blood alongside us during the Afghanistan campaign. There is also Japan’s historic support for the campaign against terrorism. And consider our Western Hemispheric neighbors’ invocation of the Rio Treaty and their commitment to combat terrorism in our backyard embodied in the Organization of American States’ new Inter-American Convention Against Terrorism, adopted in June 2002.

But these alliances cannot be taken for granted. The challenges of this new era are not those of the Cold War; the threat posed by bin Laden and his ilk is fundamentally different from that posed by Stalin and his. Our core alliances, therefore, must evolve to meet the demands of this new era or they risk falling into irrelevance.

At the same time, as we have seen dramatically since the horrific events of September 11th, we now have the opportunity to recast our relationships with many nations, including Russia, China, and India. The cooperation forged in the war against terrorism highlights how our future relations with these three major powers do not need to be shackled by the memories of past animosities or prickly relations. Indeed, it is not too much to say that we have never had better relations with all three countries at the same time.

Today we do not see a serious danger of a war between any of the great powers. We should never forget what a remarkable change this is. The twentieth century was defined by struggles of power politics among the world’s major nations. When the balance of power broke down, it gave us two world wars. When it held, it gave us a cold war. The true “peace dividend” of this era is our ability to turn our efforts from containment and confrontation to cooperation. Ensuring that this historic development becomes a lasting feature of our world will be a major challenge facing American policymakers.

But on the other hand there's this to factor in these days.

Say what you will about the Europeans, after 9/11 they were backing us 100%. They are our very closest allies politically, culturally and economically , most especially on the threat of Islamic terrorism. We have worked hand in glove for over 50 years to establish international institutions and a set of norms to govern civilized behavior in the era of nuclear weapons and an increasingly interdependent world.

It is truly outrageous that Cowboy Bob and his band of frustrated middle aged warriors have so little regard for these long standing alliances. They seem determined to destroy every single shred of goodwill we have built up over the last half century the same way they destroyed the post 9/11 goodwill in a matter of months.

Surely Intelligence saw this coming.

Wanted: A Definition of "Intelligence"

As a straight line, I could hardly ask for better. This is the Definition and Theory paper. I’ll save you the trouble of reading it by jumping straight to the concluding definition:

Intelligence is secret, state activity to understand or influence foreign entities.

By definition, then, intelligence is defined both by foreignness and by secrecy:

What is the difference between security (and the law enforcement aspects of catching and prosecuting security risks) and counterintelligence? I would argue that the difference is secrecy. Plenty of agencies and businesses have security offices; many also perform investigative work. But not all of those organizations are thereby intelligence agencies. Security and investigative work against foreign spies becomes "counter-intelligence" when it has to be done secretly for fear of warning the spies or their parent service.

…Without secrets, it is not intelligence. Properly understood, intelligence is that range of activities—whether analysis, collection, or covert action—performed on behalf of a nation's foreign policy that would be negated if their foreign "subjects" spotted the hand of another country and acted differently as a consequence.

The author explicitly states that if intelligence activity is conducted against domestic citizens, “the activity becomes a branch of either law enforcement or governance.”

The emphasis on secrecy gives this definition of intelligence a rather gnostic feel. In fact, equating intelligence gathering and analysis with mystical ways of obtaining knowledge, attained only by the few, is one way to understand the utter irresponsibility displayed by the so-called intelligence community, based in clannish and insular behavior.

Being and disclosure: two elements of intelligence work.

What To Do When Traditional Models Fail

Read tea leaves? Adopt a marketing model and refer to policymakers as customers and consumers with changing needs?

More recently, DI managers have realized that the specific interests of customers must have greater weight in determining what to do on any given day. As a result, the [current] model has acquired an additional step—understanding customer feedback to determine policymaker interests.

...

Critical, sometimes unstated, assumptions underpin this tradecraft model:

Assumption 1: Policymakers need a service that tells them what is going on in the world or in their particular area of concern.

Assumption 2: Policymakers need help in determining what an event means.

Assumption 3: The CIA and specifically the DI have unique information about what is happening.

Assumption 4: DI analysts are particularly insightful about what these developments may mean.

...

When Models Fail

Analysts today have to add value in an era of information abundance.

Analysts today have to dig deep to surpass the analytic abilities of their customers.

Analysts today have to reach beyond political analysis, an area in which it is particularly hard to provide value to policymakers.

Sorry about the nested bulleted list. When I hear the word "customer," I pull out my PowerPoint.

New and Improved Value-Added Intelligence

New Assumption 1: Most of the time, policymakers have a good sense of what is going on in their areas of concern.

New Assumption 2: Policymakers frequently understand the direct consequences of events and their immediate significance.

New Assumption 3: The CIA—and particularly the DI—often lacks unique information about developments, especially in the political and economic spheres. Raw intelligence is ubiquitous and can get to policymakers before it reaches the analysts.

New Assumption 4: Policymakers need the greatest help understanding non-traditional intelligence issues. There is still a market for political analysis and certainly for related leadership analysis, but to be successful in traditional areas the DI must generate unique insights into relatively well-understood problems.

Translation: Don't blame us if you tried to figure it out on your own and got it wrong. Argh, no, not another bulleted list!

Analysts must focus on the customer.

Analysts must concentrate on ideas, not intelligence.

Analysts must think beyond finished intelligence.

"As anyone who has done a recent tour at a US Embassy knows, most of the real scoop on world events is now exchanged in informal e-mails and telephone calls."

Analysts must look to the Centers as models.

Oh, Jesus, now it's a table!!! Someone's been browsing the books in the Business Section at Barnes and Noble!

The Old Analysis Cautious/Careful Fact-based Concrete/Reality-based Linear/Trend-based Expert-based Hierarchical Precedent-based Worst-case/Warning-focused Text-based Detached/Neutral

21st Century Analysis Aggressive/Bold/Courageous Intuitive Metaphor-rich Complex Humble, Inclusive, Diverse Collaborative Precedent-shattering Opportunistic/Optimistic Image-rich Customer-driven/Policy-relevant

The more we care, as we should, that we have an impact on the policymaking community, the less neutral we become, in the sense that we select our topics based on customer interests and we analyze those aspects that are most relevant to policymakers. Analysts understandably are confused by this new direction. They were taught, they say, to produce intelligence analysis that focuses on events and developments, not customers. It is not their job to worry about whether or not it has impact.

"But we should not pretend that integrity and neutrality are the same thing or that they are dependent on each other. Neutrality implies distance from the customer and some near mystical ability to parse the truth completely free from bias or prejudice."

I told you so.

"Integrity, on the other hand, rests on professional standards and the willingness to provide the most complete answer to a customer’s question, even if it is not the answer he wants to hear."

At least the actual words "outside the box" were nowhere to be found.

Evolution Beats Revolution in Analysis

A response to the previous paper.

Claims of dramatic shifts in large systems, whether the environment, a national economy, or a US government agency, always need to be viewed with some skepticism. Systems do not change overnight, especially those affected by some of the more immutable traits of human nature. Medina’s claims about a new environment of information abundance radically altering policymaker needs are overstated. They echo much of the “new economy” thinking that, as good as it sounds, is increasingly unconvincing as it has been put into practice. Not too long ago, The Washington Post ran a series of articles on “The Rise and Fall of Michael Saylor,” the Microstrategy chief who became a multi-billionaire, then watched his wealth and his company collapse after bad accounting practices took the luster off his vision of how to handle the new environment of information abundance. The series reminds us that untested theories, especially when presented in glowing terms to excite the imagination of investors and managers, often promise more than can be delivered and more than, in practice, anyone wants. The DI, like many corporations, already has a good and useful product. When consultants and others come to us saying that everything has changed and so must we, the proper response before investing significant resources ought to be “prove it.”

...

At its heart, the article is criticizing the DI’s office-based culture, where considerable autonomy can result in components choosing different paths. Many would argue that the problem is that the current model for analysis has not been applied consistently across the Directorate. Many of the shortcomings that Medina lists are the result of this uneven application and the failure to solidify the corporate foundation of basic tradecraft skills. This raises doubts that a new model would be any easier to adopt than the current one. Successful change in any organization requires either a dramatic and widely accepted shift in basic principles or years of sustained attention to shaping processes and values. In both cases, senior leadership needs to demonstrate what it truly values by using the full gamut of its abilities to promote and reward the desired behaviors.

When I hear the words "office-based culture," I get out my:

a) Six Sigma handbook
b) well-thumbed copy of The Art of War with highlighting and marginalia
c) spirit guide
d) revolver
e) cheese
f) all of the above

Ways to Make Analysis Relevant but Not Prescriptive

On the desired neutrality of intelligence. National interest... culture... prioritizing...What priorities are really in the national interest?

This is the only article that refers to real-life situations as examples. It's a good way to look at the mindset of the intelligence position with regard to actual policy. Since the policies mentioned were often unpopular in one US constituency or another, the link to intelligence thinking may provide insight

In Venezuela and Colombia, the interests of US oil companies—in addition to the US government’s desire to ensure oil flows—carry weight in political deliberations. When analysts were studying the potential impact that a proposed purchase by Chile of advanced fighter aircraft would have on the military and political balance in South America, US aircraft manufacturers had already presented their case to government officials. Should intelligence analysts accept the companies’ view—and subsequently the administration’s position—that the sale of arms better served US national interests than a continuation of arms control efforts in Latin America?

I am surprised this article is unclassified.

Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) must be on the agenda of any administration because of the vast sums of money at stake for US businesses. But policymakers are aware that certain IPR violations—such as the provision of illegally produced drugs to the desperately ill and pirated software to small businesses—help to promote social and economic well-being in less advantaged countries. Pirated medical textbooks enable universities in the third world to train doctors, which is arguably in the US national interest. How should intelligence analysts sort out the priorities when national interests conflict?

...

For intelligence professionals, this real world poses tough questions for analyzing the implications of foreign developments for US national interests. Analytic papers traditionally address “Implications for the United States,” not “Implications for Administration Priorities” or “Implications for US Political Horse-trading.” Such sections often have a contrived feel because the genuine national interests are not clear. The temptation to take sides in policy debates is strong, but analysts can run into trouble even inadvertently, because there are so many types and levels of “national interest.” If we are not careful, sections that address “Implications for the United States” can become policy-prescriptive simply by describing a positive outlook that coincides with a policy direction or expressing pessimism about a foreign country’s course of action, and can appear to “poke the policymaker in the eye,” as former Director of Central Intelligence Robert Gates used to say.

"Savvy intelligence requires it."

This sentence alone makes the article worth reading, unlike the phrase "the real scoop on world events." Unfortunately, someone has been having cocktails with an MBA again, which leads both to using the unfortunate phrase "the bottom line" with a straight face and using "value-added" as a noun, when it is not even a useful adjective.

"Policy support should be called 'intelligence' because of the analysts’ value-added, not the clandestine sourcing."

Ultimately, the thinking behind this falls into the trap of the myth of objectivity.

All of which only brings us back to Hegel, and we know how much fun that is.

posted by el goose on 1/25/2003 11:06:25 AM | link

--------------------

January 24, 2003

Tom Cruise not gay.

Fanatical Apathy clears it up. In case you still had a questions, that is. After so many messages that Tom Cruise is, in fact, not gay. Not there's anything wrong with that. Gayness or not gayness, nothing wrong with either. But Tom Cruise is not gay.

posted by el goose on 1/24/2003 03:01:35 PM | link

Not much of interest in Dayton, Ohio these days (quit laughing). The Daily News reported on local twins auditioning for American Idol. This was front page news earlier in the week.

The latest on the parents who faked leukemia in their daughter in order to collect donations for her care.

Other than that, it's the usual humdrum routine of abuse, despair, atrocities and ridiculousness.

posted by el goose on 1/24/2003 03:40:33 PM | link

--------------------

January 22, 2003

Metafilter at its finest

All hope is not lost.

A fine discursus on the heinous Budweiser catfight commercial and its relation to Kirk/Spock slash via the classic episode Amok Time and the work of Stanley Kubrick. Discussion also proves that the MeFi community has some of the most, er, creative readers that I've come across. Read it and weep.

I'm proud to be a member. *sniff*

posted by el goose on 1/22/2003 08:32:17 AM | link

I pulled into the driveway this morning after running errands and noticed that there was some sort of hullabaloo going on out on the lake. It has been frozen over this winter and there have been meatheads playing on it, so of course I thought that someone had gone through the ice at last. On closer observation, it turned out that our local Rescue Professionals (TM) were practicing their rescues of meatheads-through-the-ice.

Some poor bastard in what must have been an insulated wet suit gets to pretend to be freezing in the water.

"Help! Help!"

"Hold onto the ice! Is there anyone with you? What's your name! Hold on to the ice! Someone is coming out to get you!"

The rescuer, with some sort of line tied to him, then ventures on to the ice, probing it with a long staff, until he reaches a part that cannot support his weight. In this case, the ice was broken all the way through before getting all the way out to the practice victim.

Once he reaches a weak point in the ice, the rescuer chucks the staff back towards shore and goes down on his belly to move toward the victim. He swims through, or at least splashes through, any water to the victim. Any solid ice on the lake has to be maneuvered over before he gets to the victim. The rescuer is supposed to be talking to the victim all the time, telling him what is happening. When he gets to the hole in the ice where the victim is, he gets into the water with the poor bastard.

I thought it would have been more realistic if the victim had tried to pull him under, the way a drowning person would, but the water is so cold that maybe that is not the typical reaction, particularly since the victim has been holding on to the ice.

The rescuer maneuvers the freezing person around so that the rescuer's body is underneath, and then someone on the shore pulls on the line. If all goes well, the rescuer's body acts as a toboggan, pulled to safety with the victim's body on top. If they go through the ice again, the rescuer helps the victim along until they get somewhere more solid. If the line is pulled too hard, both rescuer and victim can go flying. That's why they practice.

posted by el goose on 1/22/2003 12:06:54 PM | link

--------------------

January 21, 2003

“Since trying Michael Menkin’s Helmet, I have not been bothered by alien mind control. Now my thoughts are my own.I have achieved meaningful work and am contributing to society.My life is better than ever before.Thank you Michael for the work you are doing to save all humanity.”
- Jon Locke, Alien Abductee

Not that John Locke.

Wear the helmet as much as you can, especially during times that you feel you are usually abducted. Some persons report complete success just wearing the helmet at night, others report that the aliens became aware when they were not wearing the helmet and took them when they weren't wearing it.

One abductee reported that when she wasn't wearing the helmet, the aliens gave her a telepathic command when they were about to take her to not put on the helmet. The only way to stop such alien telepathic commands is to wear the helmet as much as possible.

CAUTION: Keep the thought screen helmet in the safest possible place when you are not wearing it. In Kentucky, one thought screen helmet was taken from a box that was in a closet. The abductee had dental work and could not wear it. She thought she put the helmet in a safe place. Additionally, three other thought screen helmets were taken by aliens when they were not being worn, two in Virginia and one in Brisbane, Australia.

NOTE: If the helmet is hot to wear in the summer punch some holes in the top with an a sharp instrument but be careful about the size and number of the holes. A large amount of holes may limit the shielding capability.

An Essay Concerning Human Understanding by John Locke

1. The way shown how we come by any knowledge, sufficient to prove it not innate. It is an established opinion amongst some men, that there are in the understanding certain innate principles; some primary notions, koinai ennoiai, characters, as it were stamped upon the mind of man; which the soul receives in its very first being, and brings into the world with it. It would be sufficient to convince unprejudiced readers of the falseness of this supposition, if I should only show (as I hope I shall in the following parts of this Discourse) how men, barely by the use of their natural faculties, may attain to all the knowledge they have, without the help of any innate impressions; and may arrive at certainty, without any such original notions or principles. For I imagine any one will easily grant that it would be impertinent to suppose the ideas of colours innate in a creature to whom God hath given sight, and a power to receive them by the eyes from external objects: and no less unreasonable would it be to attribute several truths to the impressions of nature, and innate characters, when we may observe in ourselves faculties fit to attain as easy and certain knowledge of them as if they were originally imprinted on the mind.

But because a man is not permitted without censure to follow his own thoughts in the search of truth, when they lead him ever so little out of the common road, I shall set down the reasons that made me doubt of the truth of that opinion, as an excuse for my mistake, if I be in one; which I leave to be considered by those who, with me, dispose themselves to embrace truth wherever they find it.

Clearly not under the influence of Greys.

posted by el goose on 1/21/2003 05:11:56 PM | link

--------------------

January 20, 2003

Margaret Singer has made history delving into the psychology of brainwashing

Name any major cult or near-cult in America in the last half of the 20th century, and this teacher and author of "Cults in Our Midst" has probably researched it, debriefed its victims, or helped the cops nail its leaders.

This article provides interesting insight into Margaret Singer's life, albeit in a teeth-grittingly cutesy way. Singer entered started her career by working with soldiers returning from the Korean War who suffered from what looks to me like post-traumatic stress disorder.

In 1953, Singer went to work as a psychologist for the Walter Reed Army Institute of Research in Washington, D.C., where she made a specialty of studying returned prisoners of the Korean War.

Struggling to make sense of how so many strong, young Americans had come back mentally broken and often politically twisted around at the hands of the enemy led her to deeper historical research. She found that patterns of similar brainwashings - "coercive persuasions" - had existed in various forms for centuries.

posted by el goose on 1/20/2003 09:50:16 AM | link

Letter From A Birmingham Jail

I'm not sure when I read this last.

Lamentably, it is an historical fact that privileged groups seldom give up their privileges voluntarily. Individuals may see the moral light and voluntarily give up their unjust posture; but, as Reinhold Niebuhr has reminded us, groups tend to be more immoral than individuals.

...

We know through painful experience that freedom is never voluntarily given by the oppressor; it must be demanded by the oppressed. Frankly, I have yet to engage in a direct-action campaign that was "well timed" in the view of those who have not suffered unduly from the disease of segregation. For years now I have heard the word "Wait!" It rings in the ear of every Negro with piercing familiarity. This "Wait" has almost always meant 'Never." We must come to see, with one of our distinguished jurists, that "justice too long delayed is justice denied."

...

Paul Tillich has said that sin is separation. Isn't segregation an existential expression of man's tragic separation, an expression of his awful estrangement, his terrible sinfulness?

Proof that some things never change...

First, I must confess that over the last few years I have been gravely disappointed with the white moderate. I have almost reached the regrettable conclusion that the Negro's great stumbling block in the stride toward freedom is not the White Citizen's Counciler or the Ku Klux Klanner, but the white moderate who is more devoted to "order" than to justice; who prefers a negative peace which is the absence of tension to a positive peace which is the presence of justice; who constantly says "I agree with you in the goal you seek, but I can't agree with your methods of direct action;" who paternalistically feels he can set the timetable for another man's freedom; who lives by the myth of time and who constantly advises the Negro to wait until a "more convenient season." Shallow understanding from people of goodwill is more frustrating than absolute misunderstanding from people of ill will. Lukewarm acceptance is much more bewildering than outright rejection.

...

Will we be extremists for hate or will we be extremists for love?

...

The contemporary church is often a weak, ineffectual voice with an uncertain sound. It is so often the arch supporter of the status quo. Far from being disturbed by the presence of the church, the power structure of the average community is consoled by the church's silent and often vocal sanction of things as they are.

But the judgement of God is upon the church as never before. If the church of today does not recapture the sacrificial spirit of the early church, it will lose its authentic ring, forfeit the loyalty of millions, and be dismissed as an irrelevant social club with no meaning for the twentieth century. I am meeting young people every day whose disappointment with the church has risen to outright disgust.

posted by el goose on 1/20/2003 10:57:35 AM | link

--------------------

January 19, 2003

"If voting could change the system it would be illegal."

Yesterday was the anniversary of the birth of Robert Anton Wilson (late again).

The Eightfold Model of Human Consciousness The sort of thing that appeals to my self-obsession. But is it really more meaningful than any random internet quiz?

Everything is under control

posted by el goose on 1/19/2003 02:24:44 PM | link

Italian doctors have successfully performed what they are calling the first jawbone transplant in the world using the mandible from a corpse.

oog oog oog.... I am so glad I quit chewing tobacco within months of starting.

via die puny humans

posted by el goose on 1/19/2003 03:09:35 PM | link

Cult of personality

What personality?

posted by el goose on 1/19/2003 03:44:08 PM | link

Bush Releases New Form 1040

Take a look to see if you're eligible for any new deductionals.

posted by el goose on 1/19/2003 04:23:12 PM | link

Barking dog alerts man to sliding 800-ton rock

Athens, Ohio. It's not Dayton, but it will do in a pinch. The only weird news story we've had around here for a couple of days is the terrier pup with a cleft palate. He's done well after the surgery and is recovering at home.

posted by el goose on 1/19/2003 04:48:38 PM | link

Geek alert. How embarrassing.

Alexis Denisof and Alyson Hannigan engaged.

I really am embarrassed to post that. But I am a fangeek. There's just no way around it.

posted by el goose on 1/19/2003 04:57:56 PM | link

--------------------